Accounting for Time Preference in Management Decisions: An Application to Invasive Species

Managers of invasive species seek to prevent and mitigate their impact, which vary in the time horizon over which they are realized. Likewise, stakeholders vary in the time horizons they consider relevant. Agricultural impacts might reasonably be considered over two or three decades, although ecologists typically consider environmental impacts over much longer time frames. Although time preference plays a critical role in decision making, it has largely been ignored in multicriteria analyses. In this study, we examine how time has been treated in previous decision analyses of invasive species management, focusing on the differences between multicriteria and economic cost–benefit analyses. We then outline a method for incorporating time preference information into multicriteria decision analyses to ensure that criteria weights remain a faithful representation of the decision maker's preferences. To illustrate how time preference can be elicited for invasive species problems involving both monetary and nonmonetary consequences, we describe a small empirical study we conducted with a small group of experts and managers. By outlining a way to consider time preference information in multicriteria analyses of invasive species management, we hope to facilitate better decision making that is reflective of the decision maker's true preferences. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

早期胃癌的治疗

目前,早期胃癌（early gastric cancer,EGC）的治疗仍以开放性手术治疗为主,其预后明显优于进展期胃癌。近年来,随着对EGC浸润与转移规律的深入认识和新技术的应用,其治疗中微创外科的应用更为广泛和合理,并重视患者术后的生活质量。本文结合国内外的研究进展,深入探讨EGC的治疗方法及应用指征,特别是微创外...     

Only the right noise? Effects of phonetic and visual input variability on 14‐month‐olds' minimal pair word learning

Seminal work by Werker and colleagues (Stager & Werker [1997] Nature, 388, 381–382) has found that 14‐month‐old infants do not show evidence for learning minimal pairs in the habituation‐switch paradigm. However, when multiple speakers produce the minimal pair in acoustically variable ways, infants' performance improves in comparison to a single speaker condition (Rost & McMurray [2009] Developmental Science, 12, 339–349). The current study further extends these results and assesses how different kinds of input variability affect 14‐month‐olds' minimal pair learning in the habituation‐switch paradigm testing German learning infants. The first two experiments investigated word learning when the labels were spoken by a single speaker versus when the labels were spoken by multiple speakers. In the third experiment we studied whether non‐acoustic variability, implemented by visual variability of the objects presented together with the labels, would also affect minimal pair learning. We found enhanced learning in the multiple speakers compared to the single speaker condition, confirming previous findings with English‐learning infants. In contrast, visual variability of the presented objects did not support learning. These findings both confirm and better delimit the beneficial role of speech‐specific variability in minimal pair learning. Finally, we review different proposals on the mechanisms via which variability confers benefits to learning and outline what may be likely principles that underlie this benefit. We highlight among these the multiplicity of acoustic cues signalling phonemic contrasts and the presence of relations among these cues. It is in these relations where we trace part of the source for the apparent paradoxical benefit of variability in learning.